This is my book summary of the black swan by nassim nicholas taleb. The black swan pdf summary nassim nicholas taleb 12min. Second edition the black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas taleb s landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a. An analysis of nassim nicholas talebs the black swan. After completing my book the black swan, i spent some time meditating on the fragility of systems with the illusion of stability. He draws on concepts from greek, roman, arab, french, as well as english thinkers extending greater than two millennia. This five volume collection is a thoughtful collection on the concept of the unknown from the point of view of a statistician and risk analyst. Read the black swan online by nassim nicholas taleb books. Essentially, the book is all about how to convert knowledge into action and figure out what knowledge is worth.
His 2007 book the black swan extended the metaphor to events outside of financial. Nassim nicholas taleb the black swan audio book online. The concept of a black swan event takes its name from nassim taleb s 2007 book the black swan. One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Jun 16, 2018 the black swan synopsis nassim taleb looks at the impact and human psychology of extreme events. When i read nassim taleb s book the black swan i really paid attention to it but i did not anticipate that we will have a flock of black swans or you can use even the term swarm of black swans coming after us. Black swan author pulls a 180 nassim taleb says bitcoins. Nassim nicolas taleb s black swan invites us to contemplate on how things, from the spread of religions to the fall of economic markets, are palpably unpredictable.
Praise for nassim nicholas taleb the most prophetic voice of all. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, the black swan is a landmark book itself a black swan. Black swan author nassim taleb on government covid incompetence. Keeping tabs on nassim taleb and the highly improbable. Mediocristan is where we must endure the tyranny of the collective, the routine, the obvious, and the predicted.
In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, nassim taleb shows in a playful way that black swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet weespecially the expertsare blind to them. A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. For nassim nicholas taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Nassim taleb the black swan book synopsis w quotes.
The black swan by nassim nicholas taleb bookslegit. Overall, the books of the incerto have changed my thinking on a number of topics, but this book has probably had the largest impact. Apr 21, 2020 photograph michael appleton nyt redux nassim nicholas taleb is irritated, he told bloomberg television on march 31st, whenever the coronavirus pandemic is referred to as a black swan, the. Taleb, of course, refers to numerous historical examples of things that have come completely out of the blue. Taleb introduces a toxic variant of a surprise jolt in his illustration of. I explained in the book that the best teachers of wisdom are the eldest, because they may have picked up invisible tricks that are absent from our epistemic routines and. The impact of the highly improbable is a book that focuses on what has now come to be known as the black swan theory. Nov 25, 2019 the black swan is the second book in former options trader nassim nicholas talebs fivevolume series on uncertainty.
It represents nassim nicholas talebs view of modern civilizations hubristic side effects. Jan 27, 2021 taleb is painstaking, virtually encyclopedic, in his list of methods which our understanding of info breaks down. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Bestselling author nassim nicholas taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, the black swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Sep 08, 2019 a black swan event nassim talebs main focus, throughout the book, is on the impact of black swan events rare, unpredictable and extreme events and our underestimation of their probability of occurrence. Gq praise for the black swan a book that altered modern thinking. In hardcover, this book became a surprise bestseller. My notes are a reflection of the journal write up above. The journal write up also includes important messages and crucial passages from the book. Through a number of examples, the author aims to show his readers how rare and unpredictable events have a deep and lasting impact on a persons life. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Broadly, it shows that humans tend to create environments where extreme events are more likely and then underestimate their probability.
The black swan book summary by nassim nicholas taleb. He is bluntly irreverent, with the sort of disdain for common opinion only zizek could match. Before the discovery of australia, people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by empirical evidence. The book is part of talebs five volume series, titled the incerto including fooled by randomness 2001. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, john stuart mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification. This book is equal parts scientific analysis on logical fallacies and philosophical reflection on the role of randomness in life. Extremistan is the unexpectable, black swan world of financial markets, book sales, and death by terrorism. Black swan events were discussed by nassim nicholas taleb in his 2001 book fooled by randomness, which concerned financial events. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few. In this book, he explains the phenomenon of black swans, i. The comfortable but potentially devastating lies we are told by others, and ourselves.
This book is about the absolutely unexpected, the black swan you would never suspect if you only saw white swans all your life. Extremistan is where we are subjected to the tyranny of the singular, the accidental, the unseen, and the unpredicted. Engaging and enlightening, the black swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that chris anderson calls, a delightful romp through. Now, in this revelatory book, taleb explains everything we know about what we. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier eventsand the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. For nassim nicholas taleb, black swans underlie almost everythin a black. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. Black swan author nassim taleb on government covid. As such, its more of a book on how not to invest rather than how to invest. It explained things that i sort of felt existed but unable to articulate.
The other books in the series are fooled by randomness, antifragile, and the bed of procrustes. By the author of the modern classic the black swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The black swan by nassim taleb book summary youtube. The same could be said for philosopher, essayist and trader nassim nicholas taleb, who finds something rotten in misguided yet supremely confident investment gurus, traders, hedge fund managers, wall street bankers, m. The impact of the highly improbable in 2007, and it has since become a philosophical cornerstone for his incerto series.
Nassim nicholas taleb the black swan 04022008 youtube. Books by nassim nicholas taleb author of the black swan. The black swan nassim nicholas taleb book summary youtube. Chris anderson, editor in chief of wired, author of the long tail idiosyncratically brilliant. Taleb shows that black swans, like 911, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world. Nassim nicholas taleb explores in the black swan the problems of perception caused in people by random, unexpected events such as 911, which have an enormous impact on humanity and which people try to explain to no avail.
Forecasting is not just at the heart of wall street, but its something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. Detailed notes and summary from the black swan by nassim nicholas taleb. This book analyzes socalled black swansextremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. In his book, the black swan, nassim taleb describes our relationship between books and knowledge using the legendary italian writer umberto eco 19322016. Jun 12, 2020 nassim nicholas talebs treasure chest of a book and new york times bestseller, the black swan, explores the nature of unpredictable events of huge consequence. A central idea in talebs book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to b. The impact of the highly improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader nassim nicholas taleb. Maverick thinker nassim nicholas taleb had an illustrious career on wall street before turning his focus to his black swan theory. The most influential book of the past seventyfive years. Nassim taleb is an essayist and mathematical trader, and an edge activista member of the literary and empirical community of scientistsphilosophers. In this second edition, taleb has added a new essay, on robustness and fragility, which.
One important characteristic he attributes to a black swan event is our tendency to be able to explain them after the fact, but not before. Aug 30, 2020 the black swan is the 2nd book in the five book series by nassim nicholas taleb on uncertainty. Written informally, the notes contain a mesh of quotes and my own thoughts on the book. Apr 04, 2021 black swan author pulls a 180 nassim taleb says bitcoins a failure, at least for now on february 12, the well known lebaneseamerican essayist and risk analyst, nassim nicholas taleb, declared that the leading digital currency bitcoin is a failure, at least for now. The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas taleb s landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decisionmaking in a world we dont understand. Black swan author nassim taleb says covid19 pandemic not.
The black swan is a standalone book in nassim nicholas talebs landmark incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error. Nov 02, 2020 the global governmental response to the coronavirus pandemic has been rife with shortcomings that have prolonged the acute phase of the health crisis, black swan author nassim taleb told cnbc on. The black swan by nassim taleb by peter drakeley linkedin. The bed of procrustes takes its title from greek mythology. He is the owner of a large personal library containing thirty thousand books. The pandemic isnt a black swan but a portent of a more. The black swan is the second book in former options trader nassim nicholas taleb s fivevolume series on uncertainty. The impact of the highly improbable, which has become a bestseller. Nassim nicholas taleb first made this argument in fooled by randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for selfdeception when it comes to statistics. Origins of nassim nicholas talebs black swan obsession. This results in everything from world wars to major market meltdowns.
He wants to create a platform for a new scientificminded public intellectual dealing with social and historical events in replacement to the fooled by randomness historian and the babbling journalistic public intellectual. They have been swarming around the world in the last 12 months and we expect more black swan swarms to come, dmitriev said. Summary of the black swan by nassim taleb, with interesting examples from the book and my thoughts about it overall. A book that will change how you view the world, and is increasingly important. The impact of the highly improbable is a book about epistemology, probability, risk, and psychological biases. Not all swans are white, and not all events, no matter what the experts think, are predictable. This convinced me that the banking system was the mother of all accidents waiting to happen. A central idea in talebs book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build robustness to. The writer umberto eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. Black swan events are unprecedented, have a huge impact, but are later explained away as. Feb, 2021 listen to the black swan for free with audible trial here. Oct 21, 2020 black swan author nassim taleb cheered capitalism, championed entrepreneurs, and recommended adapting to the pandemic at the bi global trends festival. Nassim nicholas talebs the black swan leaves giles foden feeling.
Its a fantastic book for helping you get to know each other better and prevent you from falling into. The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets, the mechanism of the appearance of the black swan effect is more seriously and. Nassim nicholas taleb, the author of the 2007 book, the black swan, has come out to say so himself in a bloomberg live interview. The black swan by nassim nicholas taleb and basically the others in the series like fooled by randomness and antifragile are also my favourites. The black swan pdf summary nassim nicholas taleb 12min blog.
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